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Wither The Tibetans? Future Implications Of Sustained Low Fertility

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Chapter Summary

Understanding the past is one matter. Predicting the future (?population projections' in demographic parlance) is another matter altogether, one that is fraught with uncertainty. Forecasting demographic trends is complicated by unpredictable economic, environmental, social, and political variables that affect fertility, mortality, and migration. This chapter presents high, medium, and low projections of Tibetan populations. These projections open the door for a discussion on the potential impacts that demographic trends will have on future Tibetan societies. Although it is easy to foresee that Tibetan populations will age, it is difficult to predict how Tibetans will adapt their family-based care systems for the elderly. To explore some pertinent issues that may emerge in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), the chapter discusses recent studies of aging in China. The process of population aging is accelerating in the exile communities because more young Tibetans are leaving their adoptive countries for greener pastures elsewhere.

Keywords: fertility; population projections; Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR); Tibetan populations



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