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3 Intergenerational Effects on Fertility and Intended Family Size: Implications for Future Fertility Change in China

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Chapter Summary

This chapter intends to analyze the intergenerational effect on fertility and intended family size in China from the macro- and micro-level, to infer fertility changes in China over the next decade. A multi-factor analysis on Provincial total fertility rates in 2000 found that, in addition to birth control policies, the GDP per capita and Human Development Index (HDI) are significant variables related to total fertility, and the effect of birth control policies is largely reduced after controlling for development variables. The follow-up survey in 2010 found that ideal family size, intended family size, and actual childbearing plan are related to each other, but closer to reality gradually. The decreasing in number of siblings by age of women shows the effect of family planning programs in the 1970s and 1980s. Parental influence is often indirect or through supportive action, such as taking an active role in childcare responsibilities.

Keywords: childbearing behavior; fertility change; intended family size; intergenerational effects; intergenerational relationship; parental influence



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