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The directions of FDI and the self-intensifying expectations of the exchange rate and the effectiveness of sterilized intervention

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In this paper, we develop the Renminbi’s dynamic model to analyze the relationship between the flow directions of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the exchange rate’s expectations on the basis of distinguishing the real interest rate from the desired interest rate. We find that the exchange rate expectation has a self-intensifying mechanism, which could have a reverse effect on the country’s macroeconomic stabilization. We discuss the issue on how expectation impacts the macro economy and then analyze the conditions of successful intervention, which is helpful for policy management.


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