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image of Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient

This paper examines the relationship between demographic changes and maritime prosperity in eight prefectures on China's coast during the Sung and Yuan dynasties, with Ch'üan-chou as the focus of discussion. Three sets of rank-order data on demographic patterns and degrees of maritime prosperity in these prefectures were generated and subjected to a unique statistical technique, dual scaling. The results contradict the widely held view that there was a positive correlation between demographic changes and maritime prosperity in early modern China in general and in the Sung-Yuan Ch'üan-chou in particular.

Cet article porte sur le rapport entre l'évolution démographique et la prospérite maritime des huit préfectures côtières chinoises sous les dynasties de Song et de Yuan, avec Ch'üan-chou comme le centre de notre analyse. Les trois ensembles de données classifiées sur la répartition démographique et sur le niveau de prospérite maritime des dites préfectures ont été constitués et puis soumis à l'unique technique statistique utilisée - dual scaling. Les résultats contredisent le point de vue répandu qui voit une corrélation positive entre les changements démographiques et la prospérite maritime au début de l'ére moderne chinoise en général, et à Ch'üan-chou sous les dynasties Song et Yuan en particulier.


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