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A Note on the Easterlin Model of Fertility in Northwestern Europe and the United States: 1950-1981

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image of International Journal of Comparative Sociology
For more content, see Comparative Sociology.

This paper tests a multivariate time series model of West European fertility change based on Easterlin's social and economic analysis of post-1945 fertility trends in the United States. Results indicate that fertility trends in Western Europe during the years 1950-1981 are associated with relative unemployment levels, and in some countries with age specific labor force supply constraints. Ex-post forcasts of fertility are generated up to 1981 for England and Wales, France, Sweden, and the United States. The difficulties with providing ex-ante forcasts are discussed.


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