Did the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 Impact Economic Growth in North Africa?*
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AbstractIn this paper, we utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for evidence of an impact on economic growth rates in North African countries following the 2007−2009 U.S. and global financial crisis. One or two breaks in economic growth are identified in each country, except for Morocco where no break is found. However, breaks that coincide with the financial crisis are found in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania), while other breaks coincide most often with earlier U.S. and EU recessions. To further examine the impact of shocks, impulse response functions are estimated from Vector Auto-Regression models with structural breaks. We again find no evidence that shocks from the financial crisis had a significant impact on economic growth in North Africa. We conclude that shocks from the 2007−2009 financial crisis had only a temporary and relatively small impact on economic growth rates in North Africa.
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