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Any Sequel to the 'Miracle'? Growth Potential in East Asia: Evidence from International Trade Flows

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In the debate on future prospects in East Asia after the recent economic crisis, this paper focuses on trade-based explanations of growth to study whether exports may lead the recovery of the five crisis-hit countries. For each of them, it analyses, at different levels of disaggregation, the evolution of openness to trade, patterns and direction of exports, during and after the crisis. It finds higher openness to trade for all countries, both in aggregate and for major sectors. Moreover, during the crisis it reports only minor negative impacts on competitiveness and structure of exports, mainly for Indonesia and Korea. Regionalisation of export flows seems to have been partially reversed and exports towards non-Asian developed countries increased. These findings, together with evidence of an export revival, suggest that trade can still contribute to fuelling the Financial Crisis Countries' economic growth but also that their recovery is very fragile in the face of the economic cycle in the USA and to boom-bust cycles in the IT sector.

10.1163/157006102320270220
/content/journals/10.1163/157006102320270220
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/content/journals/10.1163/157006102320270220
2002-06-01
2016-12-06

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