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Negotiation Breakthrough Analysis: The Case of Climate Negotiations

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AbstractThe article addresses an important gap in the literature on climate negotiations, namely, the question of breakthroughs: what exactly counts as breakthroughs in climate negotiations, how do you measure them empirically, and what practical implications do they have for the negotiation process? To address these questions, the article draws on market trading theory and develops a framework of negotiation breakthrough analysis for defining, recognizing and measuring negotiation breakthroughs. The article argues that breakthroughs in climate negotiations occur when the outcomes breach the resistance or support level of parties’ expectations regarding the results of climate talks. It concludes with a discussion of the broader contributions that technical analysis can make to the theory and practice of international negotiations.

Affiliations: 1: Department of International Development, University of Oxford3 Mansfield Road, OX1 3TBUnited


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