Cookies Policy
X

This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies.

I accept this policy

Find out more here

Negotiation, Mediation and Insurgent Victory in Counter-insurgency Wars Fought by Foreign Powers

No metrics data to plot.
The attempt to load metrics for this article has failed.
The attempt to plot a graph for these metrics has failed.
The full text of this article is not currently available.

Brill’s MyBook program is exclusively available on BrillOnline Books and Journals. Students and scholars affiliated with an institution that has purchased a Brill E-Book on the BrillOnline platform automatically have access to the MyBook option for the title(s) acquired by the Library. Brill MyBook is a print-on-demand paperback copy which is sold at a favorably uniform low price.

Access this article

+ Tax (if applicable)
Add to Favorites
You must be logged in to use this functionality

image of International Negotiation

How do negotiation and mediation affect the likelihood of insurgent victory in counterinsurgency (coin) wars? We develop expectations regarding the incentives of the combatants to negotiate and accept mediation while a coin war is under way, and the evolution of these incentives as a war progresses. Thirty nine civil wars are examined in which a foreign power intervenes to defend a central government against an insurgency during the period 1945–2009. We identify the subset of coin wars in which negotiations and mediation were attempted or took place, as well as their timing. The study examines whether the resort to these two instruments affects the subsequent duration and outcome of coin wars. We find that the resort to negotiations and mediation accelerates the time to insurgent victory, and explore reasons why political leaders in foreign powers would pursue such a path given the consequences of such action.

Affiliations: 1: Department of Political Science, Colorado State University – Pueblo2200 Bonforte Blvd, Pueblo, CO 81001USAsteven.liebel@colostate-pueblo.edu; 2: Department of Political Science, University of North Texas1155 Union Circle #305340, Denton, TX 76203USAajenter@unt.edu

10.1163/15718069-12341282
/content/journals/10.1163/15718069-12341282
dcterms_title,pub_keyword,dcterms_description,pub_author
10
5
Loading
Loading

Full text loading...

/content/journals/10.1163/15718069-12341282
Loading

Data & Media loading...

1. Alexander Martin S. , Keiger John F.V. France and the Algerian War, 1954–1962: Strategy, Operations and Diplomacy 2002a New York Routledge
2. Alexander Martin S. , Keiger John F.V. "“France and the Algerian War: Strategy, Operations and Diplomacy”" Journal of Strategic Studies 2002b Vol 25 2 1 1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402390412331302635
3. Allen Calvin H. , Rigsbee Lynn Oman under Qaboos: from Coup to Constitution, 1970–1996 2000 New York Routledge
4. Arreguin-Toft Ivan "“How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict”" International Security 2001 Vol 26 1 93 128 http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/016228801753212868
5. Aughey Arthur The Politics of Northern Ireland: Beyond the Belfast Agreement 2005 New York Routledge
6. Banks Arthur S. "“Cross-National–Time-Series Data Archive”" 1997 Binghamton, NY Center for Social Analysis
7. Bapat Navin "“Insurgency and the Opening of Peace Processes”" Journal of Peace Research 2005 Vol 42 6 699 717 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343305057888
8. Bennett Huw Fighting the Mau Mau: The British Army and Counter-Insurgency in the Kenya Emergency 2012 New York Cambridge University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139342506
9. Bercovitch Jacob "“Social Science Research and the Study of Mediation: Designing and Implementing Systemic Archival Research”" International Negotiation 2004 Vol 9 3 415 428 http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/1571806053498751
10. Bercovitch Jacob , Jackson Richard International Conflict: A Chronological Encyclopedia of Conflicts and Their Management 1945–1995 1997 Thousand Oaks, CA CQ Press
11. Blainey Geoffrey The Causes of War 1973 New York The Free Press
12. Bowen Wayne , Alvarez Jose A Military History of Modern Spain: from the Napoleonic era to the international war on terror 2007 Westport, CT Greenwood Publishing Group
13. Box-Steffensmeier Janet , Jones Bradford S. Event history modeling: A guide for social scientists 2004 New York Cambridge University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790874
14. Bueno de Mesquita Bruce , Smith Alastair , Siverson Randolph , Morrow James D. 2003
15. The Logic of Political Survival Cambridge, Massachusetts M.I.T. Press
16. Callwell C.E. Small Wars: Their Principles and Practice 1996 Lincoln, NE University of Nebraska Press
17. Castle Timothy N. At War in the Shadow of Vietnam: United States Military Aid to the Royal Lao Government, 1955–75 1993 New York Columbia University Press
18. Chandler David Lahneman William "“Foreign Interventions in Cambodia 1806–2003”" Military Intervention 2004 Lanham, MD Rowman & Littlefield
19. Chandler David A History of Cambodia 2008 New York Perseus
20. Clarke Colin P. , Paul Christopher "“From Stalemate to Settlement: Lessons for Afghanistan from Historical Insurgencies That Have Been Resolved Through Negotiations”" 2014 RAND Corporation
21. Clayton Anthony The Wars of French Decolonization 1994 White Plains, NY Longman
22. Clayton Govinda "“Relative Rebel Strength and the Onset and Outcome of Civil War Mediation”" Journal of Peace Research 2013 Vol 50 5 609 622 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343313491587
23. Close David , Puig Salvador , McConnell Shelley A. The Sandinistas and Nicaragua Since 1979 2012 Boulder, CO Lynne Rienner
24. Cohen Eliot , Crane Conrad , Horvath Jan , Nagl John "“Principles, imperatives, and paradoxes of counterinsurgency”" Military Review 2006 Vol 86 no. 2.
25. Connable Ben , Martin C. Libicki "“How Insurgencies End”" 2010 RAND Corporation
26. Cooper Helene , Stolberg Sheryl Gay "“Obama Ponders Outreach to Elements of Taliban”" The New York Times 2009 March 8
27. Corum James S. "“Training indigenous forces in counterinsurgency: a tale of two insurgencies”" 2006 Carlisle Barracks, PA Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
28. Cross John G. "“A Theory of the Bargaining Process”" The American Economic Review 1965 Vol 55 1 2 67 94
29. Cross John G. "“Negotiation as a Learning Process”" Journal of Conflict Resolution 1997 Vol 41 4 581 606
30. Cunningham David E. , Gleditsch Kristian Skrede , Salehyan Idean "“It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome”" Journal of Conflict Resolution 2009 Vol 53 4 570 597 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002709336458
31. DeRouen Karl R. , Heo Uk Civil Wars of the World 2007 Santa Barbara, CA ABC-CLIO Ltd.
32. DeRouen Karl. , Bercovitch Jacob , Pospieszna Paulina "“Introducing the Civil Wars Mediation (CWM) Dataset”" Journal of Peace Research 2011 Vol 48 5 663 672 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343311406157
33. DeYoung Karen "“Kerry: Pakistan-Afghanistan Meetings End ‘On a Good Track’”" Washington Post 2013 April 24
34. Dhada Mustafa "“The Liberation War in Guinea-Bissau Reconsidered”" Journal of Military History 1998 Vol 62 3 571 593 http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/120438
35. Djalili Mohammad-Reza , Grare Frederic , Akiner Shirin Tajikistan: The Trials of Independence 1997 New York St. Martins Press
36. Enterline Andrew , Stull Emily , Magagnoli Joseph "“Reversal of Fortune? Strategy Change and Counterinsurgency Success by Foreign Powers in the Twentieth Century”" International Studies Perspectives 2013 Vol 14 2 176 198 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3585.2012.00481.x
37. Evinch Gunay "Legal Action Under the London-Zurich Accords To Arrest the Illegal Accession of Cyprus to the European Union" 2003 International Cyprus Conference
38. Fall Bernard B. Street without Joy: The French Debacle in Indochina 1961 Mechanicsburg, PA Stackpole Books
39. Fearon James D. "“Rational Explanations for War”" International Organization 1995 Vol 49 3 379 414 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300033324
40. Fine J.P. , Gray R.J. "“A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk”" Journal of the American Statistical Association 1999 Vol 94 496 509 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474144
41. Funada-Classen Sayaka The Origins of War in Mozambique. a History of Unity and Division 2012 Somerset West, South Africa African Minds Publishing
42. Gall Carlotta "“As U.S. Weighs Taliban Negotiations, Afghans Are Already Talking”" The New York Times 2010 March 11
43. Gall Carlotta , De Waal Thomas Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus 2000 New York New York University Press
44. Galula David Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice 2006 Westport, CT Praeger
45. Gati Charles Failed Illusions: Moscow, Washington, Budapest, and the 1956 Hungarian Revolt 2006 Stanford, CA Stanford University Press
46. Gent Stephen "“Going in When it Counts: Military Intervention and the Outcome of Civil Conflicts”" International Studies Quarterly 2008 Vol 52 4 713 735 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00523.x
47. Ghosh P.A. Ethnic Conflict in Sri Lanka and Role of Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) 1999 Louisville, KY APH Publishing
48. Gleijeses Piero "“The First Ambassadors: Cuba’s Contribution to Guinea-Bissau’s War of Independence”" Journal of Latin American Studies 1997 Vol 29 1 45 88 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X96004646
49. Goemans H.E. War and Punishment 2000 Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400823956
50. Goldsworthy David Facing North: A Century of Australian Engagement with Asia: 1901 to the 1970s 2004 Melbourne, Australia Melbourne University Press
51. Goodwin Jeff No Other Way Out 2001 New York Cambridge University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511812125
52. Gortzak Yoav "“Using Indigenous Forces in Counterinsurgency Operations: The French in Algeria, 1954–1962”" Journal of Strategic Studies 2009 Vol 32 2 307 333 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402390902743415
53. Grau Lester W. , Gress Michael The Soviet-Afghan War: How a Superpower Fought and Lost 2002 Lawrence, KS University Press of Kansas
54. Greig J. Michael "“Moments of Opportunity: Recognizing Conditions of Ripeness for International Mediation between Enduring Rivals”" Journal of Conflict Resolution 2001 Vol 45 6 691 718 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002701045006001
55. Grivas-Dighenis George Guerrilla Warfare and EOKA’s Struggle: a Politico-Military Struggle 1962 White Plains, NY Longman
56. Harris A.W. "“Successful External Mediation of Insurgent Conflict,” presented at the 21st World Congress of Political Science, International Political Science Association, Santiago, Chile." 2009
57. Henriksen Thomas A. Mozambique: A History 1978 London, UK Camelot Press
58. Herring George C. America’s Longest War: The United States and Vietnam, 1950–1975 2001 New York McGraw-Hill
59. Hulquist Philip "“Power Parity and Peace? The Role of Relative Power in Civil War Settlement”" Journal of Peace Research 2013 Vol 50 5 623 634 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343313486281
60. Iron Richard Marston Daniel , Malkasian Carter "“Britain’s Longest War: Northern Ireland 1967–2007”" Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare. 2008 New York Osprey Publishing
61. James Martin A Political History of the Civil War in Angola, 1974–1990 2011 Edison, NJ Transaction Publishers
62. Jones Seth In the Graveyard of Empires: America’s War in Afghanistan 2009 New York W.W. Norton
63. Kennedy-Pipe C. , McInnes C. "“The British army in Northern Ireland 1969–1972: From policing to counter-terror”" Journal of Strategic Studies 1997 Vol 20 2 1 24 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402399708437676
64. Kerkvliet Benedict The Huk Rebellion: A Case Study of Peasant Revolt in the Philippines 1977 Oakland, CA University of California Press
65. Kitson Frank Low intensity operations: subversion, insurgency, peace-keeping 1971 London, UK Faber and Faber Ltd
66. Ladwig Walter C. III "“Supporting Allies in Counterinsurgency: Britain and the Dhofar Rebellion”" Small Wars & Insurgencies 2008 Vol 19 1 62 88 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09592310801905793
67. Lawrence T.E. The Seven Pillars of Wisdom 1922 Oxford, UK Oxford
68. Leites Nathan , Wolf Charles Rebellion and Authority: An Analytic Essay on Insurgent Conflicts 1970 Cambridgeshire, UK Markham
69. Lyall Jason , Wilson Isaiah "“Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars”" International Organization 2009 Vol 63 1 67 106 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0020818309090031
70. Mao Tse-Tung Griffith Samuel B. II On Guerrilla Warfare 1978 Norwell, MA Anchor Press
71. Mawby Spencer British policy in Aden and the Protectorates 1955–67: Last Outpost of a Middle East Empire 2005 London, UK Frank Cass & Co.
72. McChrystal Stanley "“Commander’s Initial Assessment” NATO International Security Assistance Force, Afghanistan." 2009 Accessed August 30, 2009 Redacted (Unclassified) Version.
73. McCormick Gordon H. , Horton Steven B. , Harrison Lauren A. "“Things Fall Apart: The Endgame Dynamics of Internal Wars”" 2006 RAND Corporation Insurgency Paper.
74. Nagl John A. Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam 2005 Chicago, IL University of Chicago Press
75. Neuheiser Jorg , Wolff Stefan Peace at Last? The Impact of the Good Friday Agreement on Northern Ireland 2004 Oxford, UK Berghahn Books
76. Obama Barack "“Obama’s Address on the War in Afghanistan”" New York Times 2009 December 2.
77. Pillar Paul R. Negotiating Peace: War Termination as a Bargaining Process 1983 Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400856442
78. Porch Douglas Marston Daniel , Malkasian Carter "“French Imperial Warfare 1945–62”" Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare 2008 New York Osprey Publishing
79. Press Associated "“Gates to Afghans: US ‘in This Thing to Win’”" New York Times 2009 December 8.
80. Press Associated "“Aide: Karzai ‘Very Angry’ at Taliban Boss’ Arrest”" New York Times 2010 March 15 2010.
81. Putter H. , Fiocco M. , Geskus R.B. "“Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models”" Statistics in Medicine 2007 Vol 26 11 2389 2430 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.2712
82. Reuters Reuters "“U.N. Set For More Discreet Talks With Taliban”" The New York Times 2010 March 15 2010
83. Rohde David , Sanger David E. "“How a Good War in Afghanistan Went Bad”" New York Times 2007 August 12.
84. Rubin Alissa J. "“Arrests of Top Taliban Figures Ended Talks, Ex-Envoy Says”" New York Times 2010 March 19.
85. Rubin Alissa J. , Walsh Declan "“Renewed Push for Afghans to Make Peace with Taliban”" New York Times 2013 February 16.
86. Salehyan Idean "“Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups”" World Politics 2007 Vol 59 2 217 242 http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0024
87. Schaefer Robert W. The Insurgency in Chechnya and the North Caucasus 2010 Westport, CT Praeger
88. Singer J. David , Small Melvin "“Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data”" 1994 Ann Arbor, MI Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
89. Slantchev Branislav "“The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiation”" American Political Science Review 2003 Vol 97 4 621 632 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000911
90. Smith Alastair , Stam Allan C. "“Mediation and Peacekeeping in a Random Walk Model of Civil and Interstate”" International Studies Review 2003 Vol 5 4 115 135 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1079-1760.2003.00504011.x
91. Stubbs Richard Hearts and Minds in Guerrilla Warfare: the Malayan Emergency, 1948–1960 1989 New York Oxford University Press
92. Taber Robert War of the Flea 1965 Herndon, VA Potomac Books
93. Taylor Alastair M. Indonesian Independence and the United Nations 1960 Ithaca, NY Cornell University Press
94. Thompson Robert Defeating Communist Insurgency: The Lessons of Malaya and Vietnam 1966 Westport, CT Praeger
95. Tomz Michael , Wittenberg Jason , King Gary "“CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results”" 2001 Version 2.0.
96. Trinquier Roger Modern Warfare: A French View of Counterinsurgency 2006 Westport, CT Praeger
97. Tvedten Inge Angola: Struggle for Peace and Reconstruction 1997 New York Perseus
98. Tys-Krokhmaliuk Yuriy UPA Warfare in Ukraine: Strategic, Tactical, and Organizational Problems in the Ukrainian Resistance in World War II 1972 Society of Veterans of Ukrainian Insurgent Army
99. UPI "“Momentum Builds for Taliban Negotiations”" UPI.com 2008 October 13
100. US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual No 3–24 2007 Chicago, IL University of Chicago Press
101. Wafa Abdul Waheed "“Departing U.N. Envoy Urges Political Solution in Afghanistan”" New York Times 2010 March 4
102. Waldman Matt , Ruttig Thoman "“Peace Offerings: Theories of Conflict Resolution and their Applicability to Afghanistan”" 2011 Afghanistan Analysts Network
103. Walker Jonathan Aden Insurgency: The Savage War in South Arabia 1962–67 2003 Charleston, SC History Press
104. Walter Barbara F. "“The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement”" International Organization 1997 Vol 51 3 335 364 http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/002081897550384
105. Ward Jon "“Biden: Taliban Negotiations Likely”" Washington Times 2009 March 11
106. Witty David M. "“A Regular Army in Counterinsurgency Operations: Egypt in North Yemen, 1962–1967”" Journal of Military History 2001 Vol 65 2 401 439 http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2677166
107. Zartman I. William Stern Paul , Druckman Daniel "“Ripeness, the Hurting Stalemate and Beyond”" International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War 2000 Washington National Academy Press
108. Zartman I. William Negotiation and Conflict Management 2008 New York Routledge
109. Zartman I. William , Berman Maureen R. The Practical Negotiator 1982 New Haven, Connecticut Yale University Press
110. Zhukov Yuri "“Examining the Authoritarian Model of Counter-insurgency: The Soviet Campaign Against the Ukrainian Insurgent Army”" Small Wars & Insurgencies 2007 Vol 18 3 439 466 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09592310701674416
http://brill.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.1163/15718069-12341282
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1163/15718069-12341282
2014-06-26
2017-06-23

Sign-in

Can't access your account?
  • Tools

  • Add to Favorites
  • Printable version
  • Email this page
  • Subscribe to ToC alert
  • Get permissions
  • Recommend to your library

    You must fill out fields marked with: *

    Librarian details
    Your details
    Why are you recommending this title?
    Select reason:
     
    International Negotiation — Recommend this title to your library
  • Export citations
  • Key

  • Full access
  • Open Access
  • Partial/No accessInformation