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Guiné-Bissau (1994-2005). Um Estudo Social Das Motivações Eleitorais Num Estado Frágil

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What were the social and political determinants reasons in Guinea-Bissau for the electoral behaviour which elected, in 2005, João Bernardo Vieira “Nino” for President of the Republic as an independent candidate? The article attempts to relate the history of that country in the sub-region of Western Africa – the Senegambia – and the objectives of the struggle for national liberation against the Portuguese colonialism, of independence, unity and development of the PAIGC, with the motivations of voters with regard to each candidate in the second round of the elections of 1994, 1999 and 2005. The conclusions in this research have been drawn up in the form of scenarios – way back, stability, controlled instability and suicidal chaos – for the near future. Quelles ont été les raisons sociales et politiques déterminantes, dans la réalité de la Guinée-Bissau, d'un comportement électoral qui a mené à l'élection, en 2005, de João Bernardo Vieira « Nino » à la présidence de la République, comme candidat indépendant ? L'article cherche à mettre en relation d'une part l'histoire de ce pays d'Afrique occidentale – la Sénégambie – et les objectifs de la lutte de libération nationale du PAIGC, contre le colonialisme portugais et pour l'indépendance, l'unité et le développement, avec d'autre part les motivations du vote relatives à chacun des candidats du second tour des élections de 1994, 1999 et 2005. Les conclusions sont élaborées en forme de scénarios – retour au passé, stabilité, instabilité contrôlée et chaos suicidaire – pour le futur proche. Quais foram as razões sociais e políticas da realidade da Guiné–Bissau determinantes no comportamento do eleitorado que levou à presidência da República João Bernardo Vieira « Nino », eleito em 2005 como candidato independente ? O artigo procura relacionar a história desse país da sub-região da África Ocidental – a Senegâmbia – e os objectivos do PAIGC na luta de libertação nacional do colonialismo português de independência, unidade e desenvolvimento, com as motivações de voto em relação a cada um dos candidatos que passaram à segunda volta nas eleições de 1994, 1999 e 2005. As conclusões são elaboradas sob a forma de cenários – retorno, estabilidade, instabilidade controlada e caos suicida – para o futuro próximo.

Affiliations: 1: Universidade de Aveiro e Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, Centro de Estudos sobre África e do Desenvolvimento, Lisboa; 2: Ministério do Trabalho e Solidariedade Social, Gabinete para a Cooperação, Lisboa; 3: Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, Instituto Português de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento, Lisboa; 4: Instituto Superior de Ciências do Trabalho e Empresa, Lisboa


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