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How to Use Risk Assessment and Early Warning in the Prevention and De-Escalation of Genocide and other Mass Atrocities

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In this article, I argue that what is commonly called early warning is nothing but expert opinions based on local information. As an alternative I describe a system based on systematic, quantitative analysis that is used to generate a global 2009 risk assessment of genocide and politicide. Systematic early warning by contrast is in its infancy. It is typically based on theoretically-driven modeling of dynamic indicators that are tracked to identify escalation or de-escalation of potentially genocidal conflicts. I elaborate on how the results of risk assessment and early warning can be used as preventive tools, exploring the relationship among R2P, humanitarian intervention, and genocide prevention.

10.1163/187598509X12505800144873
/content/journals/10.1163/187598509x12505800144873
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/content/journals/10.1163/187598509x12505800144873
2009-10-01
2016-12-10

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